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12 - Poor Thai Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change
- from Part IV - MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA (Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam)
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- By Somchai Jitsuchon, University of British Columbia
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- Book:
- The Environments of the Poor in Southeast Asia, East Asia and the Pacific
- Published by:
- ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
- Published online:
- 21 October 2015
- Print publication:
- 12 November 2013, pp 187-200
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Summary
The temperature in Asia increased at a rate of 0.1–0.3 degrees Celsius per decade from 1951 to 2000, while sea level rose and rainfall increased but with greater variation. Changes in weather resulting from climate change come in various forms: heat waves, droughts, floods and cyclones. These become more often and more intense, and interfere with human activities, including economic activities. Over the period 1990–2100, there could be a decline of up to 50 per cent in rice yield in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand. Agriculture is therefore among the most affected sectors. Agriculture is also a major cause of climate change. For example, the emission of methane (CH4) from rice fields contributes to greenhouse gas. Agriculture therefore should be managed in a way that both mitigates and adapts to climate change. Adaptation is especially important for poor farmers who lack the resources needed to properly deal with the problems of climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE
Changes in temperature, rainfall, and CO2 release are all critical to agricultural activities. Pests and diseases are also likely to change and therefore alter food productivity. Geographic changes to land affect their suitability for cultivating staple crops. Other negative effects include the reduction in the quantity of water and the loss of land due to rise in sea level. Climate change will most likely be experienced differently from one area to another. Some areas may benefit from increased temperature, especially those areas that currently have limited potential due to cold weather. Atmospheric CO2 may also speed up growth process of some plants. Rain-fed crops declined in South and Southeast Asia. Crop yields might increase by 20 per cent in East Asia and Southeast Asia. In Thailand, the effects on yields can be either positive or negative, depending on the CO 2 regime. Given the mixed findings, even if global effects were small or moderate, regional effects could be large and devastating — at least for some parts, such as Southeast Asia, which is among the most vulnerable places due to its high forestation and strong dependence on agriculture.
6 - The Socio-Economic Bases of the Red/Yellow Divide: A Statistical Analysis
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- By Ammar Siamwalla, Thailand Development Research Institute, Somchai Jitsuchon, Thailand Development Research Institute
- Edited by Michael J. Montesano, Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Aekapol Chongvilaivan
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- Book:
- Bangkok, May 2010
- Published by:
- ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
- Published online:
- 21 October 2015
- Print publication:
- 18 January 2012, pp 64-71
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Summary
The political conflict in Thailand during the past six years, involving increasingly large numbers of participants outside the usual elite, has elicited a great deal of speculation on the background of the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts. Foreign journalists, relying on interviews with the red-shirted demonstrators, have tended, for example, to conclude that most of these demonstrators are rural, poor, and primarily from the Northeast. Yellow Shirts, insofar as they have been able to attract interest from these journalists at all other than as the group that closed down Suvarnabhumi Airport, are said to be supporters of the “elite”. These views nicely complement each other and simplify matters for their audience.
Matters are a little more complicated, as was pointed out in a presentation made by one of us during the 2009 Year-End Conference of the Thailand Development Research Institute. Based on an extensive survey, that presentation came to the preliminary conclusion that there is no substantial difference in the social backgrounds of people who support the Red and Yellow points of view. It is important to bear in mind that, in both that presentation as well as in what follows, we are not studying the demonstrators themselves, who are only about 1 or 2 per cent of the population, but the much more numerous people who support the points of views expressed in the demonstrations.
This paper uses the same data as the earlier presentation, but it substantially refines that presentation's preliminary finding by using what we believe to be a more thorough and objective method to classify respondents into Reds and Yellows and then to find out what socioeconomic backgrounds appear to make people choose to lean towards the Reds, the Yellows, or neither. The paper is somewhat unusually ordered: the next section describes the data source used and proceeds directly to the results of the analysis. We leave to the end the technical details of how we proceed from the data to the results.
THE DATA
The data used both in the earlier presentation and in this paper come from a survey of political attitudes conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO), using a questionnaire prepared by the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). The objective of the survey was to answer broad questions relating to economic inequality to the political divide that affects Thai society.